What We Learned From the NFL’s Conference Championships
The Chiefs will try to defend their Super Bowl title against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers — who are playing at home.
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Jan. 24, 2021
The Super Bowl matchup is set. The TBay Buccaneers, who came into the playoffs as the fifth seed in the NFC, will host the defending champion KC Chiefs on Feb. 7 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. For Tom Brady, it is a chance at a seventh Super Bowl win. For Patrick Mahomes, it is an opportunity to be the first QB to win back-to-back titles — since Brady.
The Buccaneers came into Sunday’s NFC championship game as underdogs on the road, but beat the GBay Packers, 31-26. The Chiefs, playing in their third consecutive AFC championship game, beat the Buffalo Bills, 38-24. The game did not feel that close.
The Winner’s Bracket
Tom Brady’s faith in himself has been rewarded. At the end of last season, Brady, who was 42 at the time, seemed to be in physical decline as his New England Patriots lost a wild-card playoff game at home to the Tennessee Titans. Speculation was rampant that he might walk away from the game, but Brady, a six-time Super Bowl winner, bet on himself, signing with a promising young TBay team that could support him with talented WRs. That move paid off. Brady had a throwback regular season, tossing 40 TD passes. He is heading to his 10th Super Bowl, a record. And with Saints QB Drew Brees likely to retire, it appears safe that Brady, regardless of when he retires, will go out as the career leader in passing TDs.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce don’t care about your Cinderella story. The Bills were the feel-good story of the season, and they took a quick 9-0 lead on Sunday. But the combination of Hill and Kelce was simply relentless, with them combining to catch 22 passes for 290 yds, and two TDs by Kelce. With 13 catches, Kelce tied the NFL record for receptions by a TE in a playoff game, but the most demoralizing play of the game came from Hill who caught a 6-yard pass that the NFL’s Next Gen Stats database said should have resulted in 10 yds after the catch, or a 16-yard play. Using his speed and his ability to shed tacklers, Hill gained 71. Only three plays all season exceeded their expected yardage by a wider margin.
The question for the Super Bowl is how much time Patrick Mahomes will have to throw to either player, as TBay’s pass rush can make life miserable for opposing QBs.
It is time to wonder what qualifies as a dynasty. KC has played in the AFC championship game three seasons in a row, winning it twice, and has a chance to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the Patriots did it after the 2003 and 2004 seasons. While sports teams are typically only considered a dynasty after three championships, the NFL’s lack of repeat winners in recent decades in the salary cap era makes it worth considering if two titles would constitute a dynasty.
The Loser’s Bracket
If your season is on the line, the ball should be in Aaron Rodgers’s hands. The Packers, trailing by 8, faced a fourth-and-goal at TBay’s 8-yard line with just over two minutes remaining. Rather than going for it, GBay kicked a field goal to narrow the deficit to 5 points. As a result, Aaron Rodgers never saw the ball again. TBay was able to secure a few first downs — with help from a few penalties — and ran out the clock to ice the victory. While there was no guarantee Rodgers would have found someone in the end zone on that fourth-down play, taking the team’s fate out of Rodgers’s hands is probably something that will haunt the Packers in the off-season.
If you can pressure Rodgers, you can beat him. An aggressive young defense was the Buccaneers’ calling card last season, and while the unit was inconsistent in 2020, it showed what it was capable of on Sunday. A week after Rodgers wasn’t sacked a single time and was hit only once, he was harassed all game by TBay’s front seven. Officially, the Buccaneers had five sacks and eight QB hits, but in reality they forced Rodgers into getting rid of the ball quickly on nearly every play. They put so much pressure on him that he made a rare mistake on a free play, not seeing that Davante Adams was wide open on the sideline on a play in which GBay had drawn a TBay defender offsides.
The Chiefs had a plan for Stefon Diggs. All season, Diggs was the key for Buffalo. Diggs, the star WR, not only set career highs in receptions and yds receiving during the regular season, but he opened up the entire field for the rest of the Bills’ offense because of the respect opposing defenses showed him. The Chiefs attacked him with press coverage throughout the first half — far more press than he saw during the regular season — all but eliminating him from the game. Diggs finished the day with six catches for 77 yds, but 34 of that came on one play late in the game when the Chiefs had a large lead and switched into a prevent defense.
Buffalo needs more from its running game. Josh Allen can feel like a one-man show, throwing TD passes and reeling off huge runs at will. But it was abundantly clear in Sunday’s game that the Bills simply can’t run the ball beyond Allen’s scrambles. Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon and Isaiah McKenzie combined to carry the ball 11 times for 41 yds. Buffalo can get by with its passing game and Allen’s wild runs against a lot of teams, but if the Bills want to compete with a team like the Chiefs in future seasons, finding some balance on offense is key.