NFL Week 15 Predictions Pt 2 of 2
NY Times by Benjamin Hoffman Dec. 17, 2020 (edited by lethe200)
Sunday’s Other Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Ravens
Lamar Jackson engineered one of the wildest wins in recent NFL history, completing a 44-yard TD to Marquise Brown on fourth-and-5 with less than two minutes left in last week's game, then watching Cleveland tie the score, and then taking the Ravens far enough for Justin Tucker to kick a game-winning, 55-yard field goal. But the win was a welcome change in from a difficult period for the Ravens (8-5). Jackson finally looked like himself, and the Ravens, with a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs, no longer seemed like a team in peril.
The Jaguars (1-12) are not even close to the Browns. They haven’t won a game since Week 1, and struggle on both sides of the ball. If the Ravens don’t lose focus again, this should be an easy game for them.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Colts
In most years, this would be a key AFC South matchup, but the Texans (4-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention and the Colts (9-4) have an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 36 percent chance of winning their division. Houston’s Deshaun Watson will be the best player on the field, but the Texans have done a horrible job keeping talent around him. Indianapolis, on the other hand, made crucial personnel moves in the off-season that have taken the team from mediocre to top 10 in offense and defense.
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Titans
There are situations in which the Lions (5-8) could hold their own against the Titans (9-4), but most of them involve locking up Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in a well-guarded room and claiming nobody knows where he is. Barring that unlikely event, Detroit looks overmatched, especially if Matthew Stafford misses the game with the rib injury he sustained last week. Tennessee is in a tough fight with Indianapolis for the AFC South crown, and has a 64 percent chance of holding off the Colts, so the Titans certainly have motivation to keep winning.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., Fox
Pick: Vikings
Both teams are on the outside looking in, but the Bears (6-7) and the Vikings (6-7) are still alive, and both have at least a 20 percent chance of a playoff spot despite Chicago’s recent struggles and Minnesota’s rough start. Assuming the Bears’ offensive resurgence last week was more than a blip would probably be generous, but they certainly have looked their best with Mitchell Trubisky at QB. Still, Minnesota should be fine, provided the team gives QB Kirk Cousins more time to work than he had in a loss to TBay. Chicago defense has been hampered by injuries to OLB Khalil Mack, who is questionable for the game.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: Dolphins
The Patriots (6-7) have missed the playoffs just twice since 2001, but even with a recent hot streak they are down to a 4 percent chance at qualifying this year, and that number will drop to zero with a loss to the Dolphins (8-5), who have a 43 percent chance at a wild card. The tables have turned in this rivalry, with New England being the scrappy underdog that could spoil things for the seemingly superior team. Miami’s style of play doesn’t lead to many mistakes, so unless Coach Bill Belichick has something up his sleeve, the Patriots can start making vacation plans for early January.
Jets at LA Rams, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Pick: Rams
Sam Darnold feels like the Darkest Timeline version of Jared Goff. Instead of developing under the tutelage of an era-defining offensive genius like Coach Sean McVay, Darnold has been saddled with Coach Adam Gase, and the Jets (0-13) seem to have little chance of avoiding a winless season. The talent imbalance in this game - reflected accurately in the point spread - is extreme, and a win for LAR (9-4) should help the team increase its 60 percent chance of winning the competitive NFC West. A 17-point spread is absurd, but so are the Jets.
SF 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., CBS
Pick: 49ers
When the schedule came out, this was supposed to showcase Jimmy Garoppolo leading the defending NFC champions into Dak Prescott’s house to rekindle a classic rivalry. Injuries have scuttled both QBs’ seasons. Backup SF QB Nick Mullens facing off against Andy Dalton won’t live up to that advanced billing. Technically, neither team has been eliminated from playoff contention but the chances for both are poor. With SF RB Raheem Mostert uncertain to play and WR Deebo Samuel expected to be out, the Cowboys have a decent chance at a second straight win, as both Niners players are key to HC Shanahan’s offense. The Niners have led the NFL in two categories all year long – the number of players on IR and the number of players they have used on the field. Their IR #s are down, but that just means there are only 18 names on it instead of 25.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Pick: Cardinals
Both QBs are products of Oklahoma Coach Lincoln Riley, who will have trouble knowing which one to root for. AZ’s Kyler Murray (7-6) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2017 and won the Heisman Trophy in 2018. Philly rookie Jalen Hurts (4-8-1) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2019 and was a Heisman finalist. Hurts’ promotion to starting QB over Carson Wentz has set up this matchup between two of Riley’s star pupils. Right now Murray is a more complete player and the Cardinals are a better team. With Arizona’s chance at a wild card around 50 percent, the team should be motivated to win at home.
Monday’s Matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Pick: Steelers
Be it injuries, an offensive slump or regression to the mean, the Steelers (11-2) went from 11 straight wins to two consecutive losses. There was a sense, particularly toward the end of the win streak, that Pittsburgh was overrated. The Bengals (2-10-1), who have been eliminated from playoff contention, are likely to bear the brunt of Pittsburgh’s frustration. A blowout win over a bad, injury-riddled team would not do much for the Steelers’ fortunes, but it might help wash away the bad taste in their mouths from the last few weeks.
There should be no surprises in this one, even if the point spread is a bit large for a team that is struggling offensively.