And so...the "recession" begins

Harry Le Hermit said:
That was last year. Not looking good this year. The UK is the one that should be crying foul, imo.
International Trade

Customs Duty Import Tax Calculator Australia.
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Duty on some imports - eg rum and whiskey - is not the same as a tariff aimed at the goods of a particular country. China slapped high tariffs on Australian lobsters and wines in a attempt to bring us to heel over our Pacific nations policies.

We maintained our political policies and waited them out. We found other buyers for our wine and lobsters. Eventually, little by little, things went back to normal.

It is interesting to note they did not slap tariffs on our iron ore and coal.

We depend on US to honour our military treaties. China is our biggest trade partner. We are caught between both countries and it is a bit like walking a tight rope while blindfolded.

Best to stay calm and carry on until the danger is behind us.

Joint movie making between US and Australia (and New Zealand) will suffer from the new 100% tariff that has just been imposed on foreign made movies.
 

seadoug said:
For those who don't believe a recession is close, a recession occurs when two fiscal quarters show decreased GDP.. Fiscal Quarter 1 in 2025 has already shown a decline. All we need is Fiscal Quarter 2 to do the same and we are in a recession.
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That's not necessarily true, although part of the 'recession' consideration.

Example: 1Q2022 was originally -1.4% and 2Q2022 was originally -0.9%, All due to front loading of imports. There was a lot of chatter about being in a recession, but nothing happened. In 9-2024 the BEA revisions took the former to -1.0% and the latter to +0.3%.

On the opposite direction, the NBER has the 2008 recession starting in Dec-2007, yet it was 3rd and 4th Qtr of 2008, before negative GDP numbers.

The 1st qtr of 2025 is entirely due to massive front loading of imports, but signs indicate 2nd qtr will not be similarly impacted.
 

Magna-Carta said:
What is your take on why he 'came to town'? What in your opinion did you see or witness regarding him having his 'hat-in-hand'? I'm trying to understand where you are coming from, as there is little given away in your post.
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Well if you watched the coverage it was all pretty clear.


As far as the "statehood" matter, that's up to Canadian Provinces to decide for themselves. Nobody ever said anything about "buying" them.

Western Ontario really wants out as well, but sadly their situation is a harder nut to crack.
 
smiley said:
so Usa and Ca can't get on well together jeez - and we wonder about the rest of the globe??
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It's not about getting on well. It's about ending the subsidies of Canada by the US. Stopping the flow of drugs from China via Canada. Stemming the flow of illegal immigration through Canada. Discourage Canada's government from playing footsie with the CCP.
 
Warrigal said:
Joint movie making between US and Australia (and New Zealand) will suffer from the new 100% tariff that has just been imposed on foreign made movies.
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That's merely a threatened tariff, at least for the moment.

A mercurial president thinks out loud in front of a camera or tweets 3 AM musings, the hungry 24 hour news industry amplifies the problem by broadcasting his every notion as "breaking news," and billions suffer whiplash.
 
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we are going back to the dark ages where if you had a cow i had to give you equal value in chickens .

the world hasn’t worked like that since the industrial revolution.

the countries that produced the best products at the lowest prices got the business.

we all benefited from that as technology competed for best value for our dollars
 
Considering that the technology has been stolen or handed out like candy by Benedict Arnold corporations, that's an odd thing to say.

Not everyone has profited from the Walmarting of America. I suppose if you sit closer to the top of the dung heap things smell better up there though.
 
dilettante said:
Considering that the technology has been stolen or handed out like candy by Benedict Arnold corporations, that's an odd thing to say.

Not everyone has profited from the Walmarting of America. I suppose if you sit closer to the top of the dung heap things smell better up there though.
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we do enough of our own stealing too.

watch what life cost here thanks to the tax these tariffs are levying on us .

few here care if gm sells another car in china .

but when every american company is cutting earnings expectations and planning to cut staff and we are that staff or prices of daily life go up here , that is what most of us care about
 
dilettante said:
Well if you watched the coverage it was all pretty clear.


As far as the "statehood" matter, that's up to Canadian Provinces to decide for themselves. Nobody ever said anything about "buying" them.

Western Ontario really wants out as well, but sadly their situation is a harder nut to crack.
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I watched the video, but I didn’t see any evidence of Carney being in a begging position. He seemed to be stating facts about the integrated nature of US/Canada trade, particularly in the auto sector. Trump dominating that short video doesn’t automatically make the meeting a one-sided defeat for Canada. Both acknowledged that the meeting, and future ones, involve much bigger issues and forces. I don’t see how this brief snapshot of a press exchange translates into “hat in hand.”

I’m not sure how talk of Canadian statehood, the CCP, or “Walmarting” adds clarity to whether tariffs are actually helping the average American. As @mathjak107 pointed out, people care about jobs, earnings forecasts, and daily costs.

Is this really where most Americans’ thoughts lie? Not with their own situation and how the current and future economic landscape might affect them financially, but with abstract geopolitical wins and chest pounding?
 
Much of the country has been hollowed out due to globalization. It never needed to happen, but they are happy to see it finally ending. Its end means rebuilding and jobs. Jobs that aren't just in fast food.

As far as Carney goes, what do you think his purpose was? He asked for the meeting. The President made it clear that we don't want or need what little he has to sell. All Carney did was rehash the welfare Canada has gotten via NAFTA and NATO, along with chest thumping about being "not for sale." He was meek and weak.

Why keep asking questions you already know the answers to? Tariffs aren't just economic, they are also tools of foreign diplomacy.
 
dilettante said:
After Starmer surrendered on reciprocity and fair trade the markets seem to be up.
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I think the reason people keep asking you questions for clarity is that many of your points come across as vague.

I’m not sure what you mean by “surrendered” -- could you spell that out? What exactly did Starmer give up, and in what context?

It's hard to gauge and engage with what you're getting at, or where you're coming from, with just a one-liner.
 
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RE: Post 762, "we don't want or need what little he [Canada] has to sell."

Canada has consistently been one of the top two trading partners for the United States. The two countries share a long history of supply chain integration, including especially in the automotive and textile industries and the energy sector.

Check link below to see how "little" we buy from Canada.
OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE
 
MACKTEXAS said:
RE: Post 762, "we don't want or need what little he [Canada] has to sell."

Canada has consistently been one of the top two trading partners for the United States. The two countries share a long history of supply chain integration, including especially in the automotive and textile industries and the energy sector.

Check link below to see how "little" we buy from Canada.
OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE
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and all those extra dollars come back to us as canada owns 340 billion of our debt thru treasury bonds they buy but of course that doesn’t make good political news when the economically ignorant proclaim china is cheating us
 
dilettante said:
It's not about getting on well. It's about ending the subsidies of Canada by the US. Stopping the flow of drugs from China via Canada. Stemming the flow of illegal immigration through Canada. Discourage Canada's government from playing footsie with the CCP.
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"Illegal immigration through Canada"???

Please justify this statement. How big a problem is this and how does it occur? Most illegal immigrants in Canada entered the country legally** but overstayed their visas. Canada offers a pathway to permanent status, so why would they seek to enter US illegally?

** CIMM – Undocumented Populations – March 3, 2022 - Canada.ca

Undocumented migrants​

  • An undocumented migrant is an individual who has no authorization to reside and/or work in Canada. The majority become undocumented by falling out of status when they cannot meet eligibility criteria for existing immigration programs after lawfully entering Canada, and have overstayed their authorized period of stay. Only a small portion of undocumented migrants are thoughts to have unlawfully entered, or were trafficked or smuggled into Canada.
  • Undocumented migrants live in fear of being detected and removed, and many are extremely vulnerable, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to their very limited access to health care and social services.
  • Undocumented work situations are known to present higher risks for employer abuse and exploitation due to informal work agreements that make accessing labor protections difficult. Undocumented workers are unlikely to report abuse to authorities for fear of deportation.

Out-of-status construction workers public policy​

  • To qualify for the public policy, foreign nationals must have legally entered Canada as a temporary resident; continuously resided in Canada for at least five years; be currently working without authorization in the construction industry in GTA; and have accumulated, three years full-time work experience within the past five years in construction in the GTA in designated occupations. Applicants must also have a family member living in Canada who is a Citizen or permanent resident, or have a spouse or children in Canada (regardless of immigration status).
  • Family members (spouse, partner, dependent child) of the principal applicants can be included in the application, whether they are inside or outside Canada. The principal applicant and family members must not be inadmissible for no other reasons than overstaying their status and working without authorization.
  • Individuals who made a refugee claim in Canada and failed refugee claimants are not eligible.
  • IRCC is working with the CLC to implement this public policy. They work in collaboration with the Department by identifying eligible applicants and referring completed applications to IRCC.
  • The Department is also working closely with the Canada Border Services Agency to minimize the risk that applicants be removed while their application is being processed. A removal order, where one exists, will be stayed pursuant to section 233 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations, once the applicant has been determined to meet the conditions of the public policy (at the approval in principle stage). The stay of removal will be in effect until a final decision is made on the permanent residence application.

Results​

  • As of December 31, 2021, 195 cases have been received by IRCC, with 87 principal applicants and 120 dependents having been admitted to Canada as permanent residents.
  • The first version of this public policy had requirements that were more aligned with economic programs, focusing on higher human capital. This did not respond to the realities of this vulnerable population.
  • As a result, the public policy was updated in July 2021 to be more facilitative. The main changes include the following:
    • Removal of the language requirement, as this was the most significant barrier
    • An extend expiry date from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023
    • Removal of the requirement to have paid income taxes in Canada and having previous authorization to work in the construction industry, allowing all 500 places under the public policy to be open to those who legally entered Canada as a temporary resident but are now out of status
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And so it begins. I placed a small order with a vendor today. Note the 7% surcharge for tariffs on their invoice.

Fortunately, I anticipated most of what I'd need from this vendor and placed a much larger order before their tariff upcharge went into effect. My customer placed their order with me a few days ago, and this small order mops up the stragglers needed to complete it.

None of my vendors are absorbing the tariffs, nor are countries of origin or offshore factory owners. All have advised me of price increases of 6.5% - 8% and up (higher for Chinese goods) with the caveat that if "paused" tariffs are activated in July, those will also be passed along. (I personally don't expect them to go into effect, but wouldn't lay money on it.)
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StarSong said:
And so it begins. I placed a small order with a vendor today. Note the 7% surcharge for tariffs on their invoice.

Fortunately, I anticipated most of what I'd need from this vendor and placed a much larger order before their tariff upcharge went into effect. My customer placed their order with me a few days ago, and this small order mops up the stragglers needed to complete it.

None of my vendors are absorbing the tariffs, nor are countries of origin or offshore factory owners. All have advised me of price increases of 6.5% - 8% and up (higher for Chinese goods) with the caveat that if "paused" tariffs are activated in July, those will also be passed along. (I personally don't expect them to go into effect, but wouldn't lay money on it.)
View attachment 424672
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Oh you should just eat those tariffs!
 
MACKTEXAS said:
Seems they've been doing that all along, so now they just have another excuse.
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Target just announced similar rising prices, today. The coming weeks/months are going to be bad for All retail stores...AND the consumers. We are starting to stock up on anything we use that is on sale. For example, I like to eat a bowl of Raisin Bran for breakfast, and our local grocery store had it on sale for $2/box....instead of $3.25....I bought 6 boxes.
 

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