On day 10 of the Iranian revolution, the Ayatollah has fled

Brookswood said:
You sort of left out the part where Iran has suffered a lot of material and personal losses also.

War is hell. If this war is to be ended and not just delayed into the future, both sides need to face reality. Are they seriously doing that? I am not sure.
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The losses although severe are just temporary setbacks and the new leadership is bound to be more ruthless than the old. Iranians aren't going to forget how to enrich uranium, make drones, and kill protestors just because they're under new management.
 
VaughanJB said:
At best, an "agreement" will be made that is no better than the one that was torn up. This will be used as propaganda to suggest it was all worthwhile, and victory has been achieved. That is despite nothing having been changed. That is, at best.

At worse, as suggested in this thread, nuclear weapons will deployed. Millions will die. But not simply millions in Iran - the winds don't honor borders. In fact, people will suffer for decades, long after the reasons for this war have been forgotten. It will normalize the use of nuclear weapons - I mean, if they can be used in Iran, why not Ukraine? And so, we spiral to mutual destruction. US allies will shun the nation. More nations will seek the capability.

How can that be right, or just? If hating another country was reason enough for nuclear Armageddon, then we'd not be writing back and forth. We'd be living in caves.
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If Iran does get nuclear weapons, they won't use them any more than Pakistan or India or North Korea any other nuclear power uses them. It will simply be a deterrent to prevent the U.S. or any other country from invading. Hell, they might even decide to be more responsible in world affairs.
 
againstthegrain said:
The losses although severe are just temporary setbacks and the new leadership is bound to be more ruthless than the old. Iranians aren't going to forget how to enrich uranium, make drones, and kill protestors just because they're under new management.
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Not only that, they will now have an even more deep-seated hatred for the US and Israel and, since they haven't won an all-out war, they will be more inclined to resort to domestic terrorism.
 
RambleTamble said:
If Iran does get nuclear weapons, they won't use them any more than Pakistan or India or North Korea any other nuclear power uses them. It will simply be a deterrent to prevent the U.S. or any other country from invading. Hell, they might even decide to be more responsible in world affairs.
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The one I'm most worried about using nuclear weapons is Israel.
 
RambleTamble said:
If Iran does get nuclear weapons, they won't use them any more than Pakistan or India or North Korea any other nuclear power uses them. It will simply be a deterrent to prevent the U.S. or any other country from invading. Hell, they might even decide to be more responsible in world affairs.
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There are international agreements that help govern thing, and as you state, they have thus far held the fabric together. Other than Israel, of course. They won't sign up. If a nuclear weapon is used against Iran, I don't think people understand what it might lead to. A global catastrophe. A stain upon humanity.

Here's something to remember - some farms in the UK are STILL under special measures due to the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine. It's not like that radioactivity stays where the bomb goes off. It follows the winds. Do we not care about Turkey, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia? Do we not care they will likely be severely affected by such an action?

Aunt Bea said:
It seems like we are losing ground around the world. 😢
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Because of the nature of the board, I feel I have to predicate this next comment with a statement that I love the US and the US people. I truly do.

But I think many Americans are missing just how much good will and leadership the US is giving up on the international stage. It's already a disaster. And while us old gits might not care since our race is run, this is something that will affect generations to come. What's happening is destroying the reputation abroad. And for what?

Tax payers in the US have thus far (as of time of writing) spent $25bn on this war with Iran. Oil prices are up, and so is what you pay at the pump. Food costs have gone up, and without resolution within 12 weeks, world shortages will happen. That those shortages will affect (starve) the poor in Africa and Asia first doesn't matter, it'll eventually get to us all. Those extra costs are in principle another tax burden Americans are paying every day at the cost of the food they can put on their table.

Is it really worth it? Having been told Iran is close to having nuclear weapons for more than TWO DECADES already. Is it really okay that Iran decided to continue enrichment only after the previous deal made with them was scrapped for no good reason?

It's odd. Let's say Communist Canada invented a fizzy bomb; a hugely destructive bomb that created bubbles and fizz all over the place. Let's say the US doesn't have this weapon, or anything like it. They have no defense to it, what should they do? Well, one thing is to get their own fizzy bombs, right? Would you be against that? You've got to defend yourself, right? Isn't that reasonable? Wouldn't it be expected?

So here we are. An imperfect, but effective agreement was in place, it was suddenly torn up, so Iran started things up again. That is despite their leaders laying their faith on the line to stop it ever coming to fruition, by the way.

It's been horribly mishandled.
 
The endings:

1). Iran is invaded: we spend soldiers' lives as well as their families' lives, $$trillion$$ and decades.

2). After the us gov becomes fully aware of being totally humiliated by Iran we pack up our "cards" (presumably the Joker) and go home.

What's it gonna be - the end of a civilization or an ego crushing defeat?
 
againstthegrain said:
The endings:

1). Iran is invaded: we spend soldiers' lives as well as their families' lives, $$trillion$$ and decades.

2). After the us gov becomes fully aware of being totally humiliated by Iran we pack up our "cards" (presumably the Joker) and go home.

What's it gonna be - the end of a civilization or an ego crushing defeat?
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I can think of other possible endings.
 
againstthegrain said:
The endings:

1). Iran is invaded: we spend soldiers' lives as well as their families' lives, $$trillion$$ and decades.

2). After the us gov becomes fully aware of being totally humiliated by Iran we pack up our "cards" (presumably the Joker) and go home.

What's it gonna be - the end of a civilization or an ego crushing defeat?
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We should just declare victory and leave it to others to clean up the mess.
 
seadoug said:
Seems we in the US are losing ground in the Gulf as Qatar and Oman are striking deals directly with Tehran. No surprise.

https://www.intellinews.com/us-infl...s-qatar-oman-strike-deals-with-tehran-435551/
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Isn't it similar to what happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan? The US got itself in a mess and had to quietly walk away leaving its allies wondering what the hell they were doing there too. However this time it has sent the world's economy into a tailspin.


The only winner is China who are probably chuckling into their tea cups at the moment, so many previously unaligned countries seem to be looking to China as a stabilising influence.
 
Well, the cease fire seems to be breaking down. Inevitable really, I can't imagine Iran simply giving in to US/Israeli demands, and vice-versa. I suspect there will be another set of assault before this thing looks like ending. Same in Lebanon, it's supposed to have a cease fire, but it's being bombed during it!
 
Wombat said:
Isn't it similar to what happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan? The US got itself in a mess and had to quietly walk away leaving its allies wondering what the hell they were doing there too. However this time it has sent the world's economy into a tailspin.


The only winner is China who are probably chuckling into their tea cups at the moment, so many previously unaligned countries seem to be looking to China as a stabilising influence.
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China’s Big Bet on Wind Power Is Paying Off​

As the war in Iran threatens to choke off oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, China is seizing the moment to extend its dominance in wind power.

Across China, hilltops are dotted with wind turbines, and long rows of them span many miles in western deserts. Ultrahigh-voltage power lines carry electricity thousands of miles to the energy-hungry factories along China’s coast.

Last year, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined, even as its turbine exports jumped. The global industry’s center of gravity has shifted decisively: All of the world’s six largest wind turbine manufacturers are Chinese, displacing once-dominant European firms and companies like General Electric.

The war has made China’s investments in wind look prescient. Its Asian neighbors, long reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas, are struggling to secure fuel supplies. Meanwhile, China, with its massive reserves and modern electric grid, is better positioned to weather the energy crisis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/business/china-wind-turbines.html

Meanwhile, the U.S. government is paying wind power companies billions to NOT build wind farms.

The U.S. government is paying wind power companies nearly $2 billion in 2026 to cancel offshore wind farm projects, primarily along the East and West Coasts. These funds reimburse developers for lease costs, with the stipulation that companies like TotalEnergies shift investments towards oil and natural gas projects, marking a major policy shift toward fossil fuels. [1, 2, 3]
  • Key Deals: The administration announced a nearly $1 billion payout to French company TotalEnergies in March 2026 to abandon wind projects near New York and North Carolina. Another $885 million was pledged in April to companies for cancelling projects in California, New York, and New Jersey.
  • Purpose: The payouts aim to reverse renewable energy development and instead fund fossil fuel ventures, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Texas and oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Legality Concerns: Experts are questioning the legality of these payments, stating the government cannot use taxpayer money for such buyouts without Congressional approval. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
The companies are taking these buyouts to abandon projects that were previously planned, reversing the momentum of offshore wind development. [1]
 
againstthegrain said:
That's not it, try again.

The US is paying for the wind farms to simply go away after these companies beat back the prior attempts in the US court system to stop the completion of the wind farms. They completed environmental reviews before the project was ever approved.
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I distinctly remember a big debate about wind farms endangering reef-life. It got pretty heated. And scary; like it came down to either us or the fish. So, people got sad, too. And guilty. A real emotional roller-coaster, I'm telling you.
 
Epic Failure is now concluded in an effort to dodge to the laws concerning Congressional authorization of wars and distance themselves from the Epic misjudgment.

The new "phase" of the war, "Project Freedom" is now focused on regaining control from Iran over the strait of Hormuz.

Hopefully by the time this all concludes we'll be no worse off than before it started. Of course .mil is being run ragged (at least 13 dead), equipment will take years to rehab (the carriers), the munitions will take years to replace, and oh yeah we put the bill on our tab.
 
Murrmurr said:
I distinctly remember a big debate about wind farms endangering reef-life. It got pretty heated. And scary; like it came down to either us or the fish. So, people got sad, too. And guilty. A real emotional roller-coaster, I'm telling you.
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It was a heated, scary, and deeply emotional debate that made people feel terrible. However, the narrative that we had to choose between "us or the fish" was a false dilemma. Offshore wind farms undergo strict environmental reviews to minimize disruption during construction, and once they are built, they frequently become thriving underwater habitats.
 
Paco Dennis said:
It was a heated, scary, and deeply emotional debate that made people feel terrible. However, the narrative that we had to choose between "us or the fish" was a false dilemma. Offshore wind farms undergo strict environmental reviews to minimize disruption during construction, and once they are built, they frequently become thriving underwater habitats.
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You'll never make it out of the rabbit hole, nice knowing you!!!
 
Jake Auchincloss - "This president owns the fact that we’ve replaced one hard-line regime with a younger, more-hard-line regime. We have yielded to Iran a new strategic deterrent in the Strait of Hormuz. The highly enriched uranium is still at large. And the regime has been given the ideological tailwinds of having been seen globally withstanding more than 13,000 strikes and surviving.

I think we come out of this in a position where Iran is operationally degraded, no doubt, but strategically stronger. And this president is thereby the first president in American history to single-handedly start and lose a war by himself."
 
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