Stock market plunged today.

Wouldn't rule out a recession, but half the S&P fall was tech stocks, etc. So the Apple I-Phone will have shorter lines for their newest version. Amazon won't be shipping as much TEMU stuff. Advertisers will pull back on Meta. NVIDIA was downgraded, just in time to claim tariffs are the issue. The market was a bit froth, imho, and has been for quite some time... especially tech.

1st Qtr. GDP will likely be negative, as the trade deficit, which normally is a -4.5% drag on GDP will likely come in at -6.5%, due to front loading of imported products. For some reason, I would expect the price increases would begin immediately, even though all those goods were bought pre-tariff.

People will restrict buying, especially new cars, which means used cars will jump. There is a lot of fear mongering imho. Concerns are warranted, but those naysayers are going overboard and optimists are not much better.
 
Paco Dennis said:
What happens next!? :)
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I know you didn't ask me, but there are a variety of scenarios. The tariffs could be rolled back due to trade partners acquiescing. Tax cuts could be rolled out, which could potentially put more money into the economy. The Fed could cut interest rates more than expected. There are any number of possibilities, but all of them would be a reaction to the current poor state of the economy. Short answer... probably nothing good.
 
seadoug said:
I know you didn't ask me, but there are a variety of scenarios. The tariffs could be rolled back due to trade partners acquiescing. Tax cuts could be rolled out, which could potentially put more money into the economy. The Fed could cut interest rates more than expected. There are any number of possibilities, but all of them would be a reaction to the current poor state of the economy. Short answer... probably nothing good.
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I suspect this is part of the plan.
 
reading the undercurrents - I think your govt is quite flexible atm and is perhaps just testing the waters?? - changes could happen as we type - there is some volatility about?
 
Knight said:
For those looking for decent capital gains. Seems like a good opportunity for younger people to buy some quality stock. They just need to do some research into what took a hit but is likely to rebound.
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These dramatic dips in the market are a great time for the average 401k plan participant to accumulate additional shares in a simple low cost index fund.

ā€œWhether weā€™re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.ā€ - Warren Buffet
 
Aunt Bea said:
These dramatic dips in the market are a great time for the average 401k plan participant to accumulate additional shares in a simple low cost index fund.

ā€œWhether weā€™re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.ā€ - Warren Buffet
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I do not have a retirement account [401K] etc. Just straight holdings but there are a few stocks I am considering now in the [dip] . I missed out on GE when it was low, a few years ago, so maybe i shouldn't be such a chicken .... :rolleyes:
 
Much of this is probably "growing pains" as the era of globalization gradually fades.

I think the worst is ahead. Not for any of the reasons currently bandied about, but instead the pinch of demographic collapse. There are simply fewer and fewer people in their high-consumption years and this impediment to growth will just ramp as people age.

This is going to pinch those living off economic fluff the hardest. Day traders, brokerage workers, and "knowledge workers" of every stripe that are better characterized as middlemen and paperpushers.
 
rgp said:
I do not have a retirement account [401K] etc. Just straight holdings but there are a few stocks I am considering now in the [dip] . I missed out on GE when it was low, a few years ago, so maybe i shouldn't be such a chicken .... :rolleyes:
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I donā€™t buy individual stocks and no little about them.

Itā€™s definitely a test of faith to buy when everyone around you seems to be selling but it has always worked for me.

It doesnā€™t have to be an all or nothing situation, invest what you are comfortable with while maintaining a cash reserve.
 
dilettante said:
Much of this is probably "growing pains" as the era of globalization gradually fades.

I think the worst is ahead. Not for any of the reasons currently bandied about, but instead the pinch of demographic collapse. There are simply fewer and fewer people in their high-consumption years and this impediment to growth will just ramp as people age.

This is going to pinch those living off economic fluff the hardest. Day traders, brokerage workers, and "knowledge workers" of every stripe that are better characterized as middlemen and paperpushers.
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I donā€™t agree that the worst is ahead.

The markets always pull back in times of uncertainty.

Once the major corporations adjust to the new challenges they will come back and move forward.

Your post also reminded me of this quote from Warren Buffet.

ā€œOnly when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.ā€
 
Mitch86 said:
World stock market plunged drastically today. Looks like we may get a world depression with massive unemployment. Millions could lose their jobs and civil wars and international wars could spring up out of nowhere.
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Gonna step out on a limb here and say that it's this kind of fear mongering that seriously yanks my chain. Would the OP care to share where the claim of "massive unemployment" was found? Surely not from today's headlines? If you're going to spread propaganda, let's see some documentation. The only statement that is proven to be true and accurate is that the stock market plunged yesterday. The rest is fear mongering at this point.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/adp-jobs-report-march-2025-.html
 
Mitch86 said:
World stock market plunged drastically today. Looks like we may get a world depression with massive unemployment. Millions could lose their jobs and civil wars and international wars could spring up out of nowhere.
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And had frogs machine guns storks would not mess with them. Could, would and should.
 
In early 2022, there were 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. Many claimed (several on this site) it was a recession, yet those numbers were revised and now indicate only 1 quarter. The reasons for those negative quarters were front loading of imports, due to an anticipated West Coast port strike.

Currently we have an extraordinary front loading of imports, in anticipation of tariff hikes. Enough so that the 1Q GDP will likely be negative, due to the additional -3.0%~-2.5% drag from that front loading. It is not out of the question for imports to slip in the 2nd quarter, as companies adjust inventories. The question is whether companies pass along the savings of that front loading... or pocket it.
 
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