What specifically or roughly how long will it take for the vaccine-hestitant to decide that the risk is worth the benefits?
For me personally, I will go by the clinical results because I don't have any personal qualifications to determine vaccine safety and I guess I trust science (at least when it is being suspiciously scrutinized by other scientists).
The vaccine trials did not rush the part of the process where they test the vaccine on people, the 'operation warp speed' (and the German version too) rushed the financial investment to enable the vaccine companies to be willing to try (reduced the risk of them losing money).
For the two American vaccines 70,000 people were in the trials. Half got the real vaccines and half were given pretend vaccination. Neither of the American vaccines use attenuated versions of covid so they do not have the risk of those type of vaccines (i.e., not like the Yellow Fever vaccine). The trial volunteers were followed for two and a half months before results were published.
In Pfizer’s Phase III trial, there were 170 total confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 162 of them occurring in the placebo arm (i.e., 8 people who got that vaccine caught Covid anyway). That’s an efficacy rate of approximately 95%.
Moderna’s efficacy rate was approximately 95%, where the number of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in the treatment arm of the trial was only 11 compared to the 185 cases in the placebo arm. While 30 of the 185 cases in the placebo arm developed into a severe case of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization, zero such cases were found in the vaccine arm.
In other news I saw it reported that one of the trial volunteers who got the pretend vaccine died of Covid.
Another factor I use in my own decision-making is my own personal life timeline. I am getting very close to retirement (planning to retire 1 yr before full Social Security retirement age). I have experienced a lot of aging since I reached my 60s and even in the past year I notice a lot less physical endurance. My hopes are to travel after retirement and that takes a certain level of health. I do not know how many more years I will feel frisky enough to travel so I don't want to waste another year needlessly waiting for a higher level of assurance if I don't have to. Especially since I don't depend on having control of my exposure. I have tried to avoid all exposure but things happen (like my furnace broke and the repair guy was in the house for an hour, and like my coworker slipped on the ice and had to make multiple trips for foot x-ray/support boot/etc).
For me I feel enough encouragement from the results of the 35,000 Americans who got the vaccine last August, and of course millions more being added to their ranks now with phase 1a etc.
I wish I didn't have to wait another 3 to 5 months to get my turn.