Countdown to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Heard on the news, it's now been 6 weeks.

And, the pundits said it would be over in 10days...when it started.

Wow! How wrong...how long?
 

JonSR77 said:
I think he is going to ply some lies to make himself look good to the Russian people, and slowly back out, to some compromised withdrawal.

And I think that means that Ukraine will have to give him some territory.

I think it is going that way. Not that I agree or have a better idea...but that is just the way I think it is going...
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That is what happened to Finland as a result of the Winter War of 1939-40. Russia attacked Finland and the Finns fought back much like the Ukrainians now. No other country came to Finland's aid and they were forced into a peace deal where they lost territory.

They have never forgotten that war and today maintain a high level of preparedness to defend themselves should it happen again. They are also applying to join NATO in June. So is Sweden.

So Putin has miscalculated badly. He will soon have NATO protected countries for much of his western borders.
 
Found this....
daily updates and insight.
Anna from Ukraine
 

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Furryanimal said:
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It's so true... as the interviwer says... looking at the destruction is horrible, hearing about the 21,000 people in that one town being killed, .. but imagine living it ...... ... as she says.. the Russians come and tell them they're being liberated... , she says ''what did we need liberating from?.. we had schools, hospitals, good homes, good jobs, a safe nice town ... they destroyed all that !..now the people are dead, normal innocent people, no jobs for anyone, or homes...everything they own gone ..all in the name of Russian liberation
 
Putin and his military seem to be preparing for even more severe attacks. Perhaps the best solution would be for Ukraine to give Russia the Eastern territories which already have mostly Russian speaking populations.

The alternative is further escalation which ultimately could lead to direct NATO involvement which could easily thrust the entire world into WWIII.
 
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led auto industry watchers to cut production and sales forecasts for the next two years. The crisis has shuttered factories in Eastern Europe, and caused spikes in the prices of already precious raw materials.

The report highlighted disruptions to the supply of critical automotive parts from the region, perhaps most notably wire harnesses from Ukraine. At risk also are raw materials — Russia produces about 40% of the world’s raw palladium — which is used to clean vehicle exhaust. The region is also a producer of nickel, which is used in electric vehicle batteries. Even common minerals and metals, such as iron, are affected.

All of these are key materials used to make cars.

Watch the video to learn more."

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/16/how-russias-war-is-cutting-global-auto-production.html
 
Nosy Bee-54 said:
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led auto industry watchers to cut production and sales forecasts for the next two years. The crisis has shuttered factories in Eastern Europe, and caused spikes in the prices of already precious raw materials.

The report highlighted disruptions to the supply of critical automotive parts from the region, perhaps most notably wire harnesses from Ukraine. At risk also are raw materials — Russia produces about 40% of the world’s raw palladium — which is used to clean vehicle exhaust. The region is also a producer of nickel, which is used in electric vehicle batteries. Even common minerals and metals, such as iron, are affected.

All of these are key materials used to make cars.

Watch the video to learn more."

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/16/how-russias-war-is-cutting-global-auto-production.html
Click to expand...
yes we've been feeling the effects of that for a few months now in the car parts industry... Prices of new cars have gone sky high because people with older cars can't get the parts to repair their existing cars.. so it's a sellers market at the moment..
 
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"Russia’s war in Ukraine is already taking a dramatic toll on the world economy and placing a huge swath of the world’s population, especially those in developing nations, at an increased risk of harm, the United Nations warned Wednesday.

As many as 1.7 billion people are “highly exposed” to the cascading effects of Russia’s war on global food, energy and finance systems, Guterres said. The U.N. report notes that “of these 1.7 billion people, 553 million are already poor, and 215 million are already undernourished.”

One of the main culprits behind the spike in food prices is a global shortage of fertilizer. Russia and Belarus provide about 40% of the world’s exports of potash, a potassium-rich salt critical to much of the globe’s fertilizer and agricultural production.

But potash is currently being targeted by the U.S. and its allies with economic sanctions as the Biden administration looks to isolate Moscow from global markets.

Russia also exported 11% of the world’s urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate, two other key fertilizer components, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley.

“Particularly in Europe, which is most vulnerable, I worry about recession prospects,” Yellen added. “This will be an urgent concern for us next week to try to think about how we can stave off starvation around the world. It’s really a grave concern.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/rus...ions-un-warns-as-food-energy-prices-soar.html
 
………A number of factors could make it difficult for Russians travelling abroad, said Katrin Sommerfeld, a researcher at the Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research who focuses on refugee immigration. She has published a paper calling on German policymakers to bring forward a strategy on how to deal with migrants from Russia.

“Prices are rocketing in the countries where these individuals are going to,” she said. “You’re only allowed to take $10,000 abroad from Russia. You can’t access your bank account. The rouble has devalued so it’s harder to get your money and it is worth less. Things are very expensive. This makes it difficult and could perhaps feed into return migration, because if your money is burnt and it doesn’t work abroad then what are you going to do?”

Some of those returning say they are often surprised by the indifference to the war.

“The main impression for me is that people are kind of accepting it,” said the tech executive. “The war is bad and Putin is evil but life continues. It’s more or less alright here, the exchange rate is alright even if it is imaginary, some stuff disappeared from shops but it’s not as bad as we thought, the prices grew but it’s not that bad. It has really depressed me seriously to the bottom of my heart.……….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-outbreak-of-ukraine-war-reluctantly-go-home
 
Don M. said:
Putin and his military seem to be preparing for even more severe attacks. Perhaps the best solution would be for Ukraine to give Russia the Eastern territories which already have mostly Russian speaking populations.

The alternative is further escalation which ultimately could lead to direct NATO involvement which could easily thrust the entire world into WWIII.
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What makes you think the Ukrainians who live there want to be a part of Russia?
And conceding territory-which if my National Guard enrolled Ukrianian friend(thankfully still safe as she travels on convoys between Kyiv and Poland) is anything to go by-would never be accepted by the average Ukrainian.
It could spark another revolution -the Maidan Revolution lies at the root of this current conflict.
Zelensky has said several times a return to the situation that existed on February 23rd would be acceptable for now.
And ceding territory in return for peace has no place in the 21st century.And sets a dangerous precedent.
The best solution is for Putin to be the subject of a coup.
 
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HUSARIVKA, Ukraine — The cows wouldn’t stop screaming.

Russian soldiers had occupied this remote village in eastern Ukraine for about two weeks and were using a farm as a base. But the animals at the farm hadn’t been fed. Their incessant bleating was wearing on both occupiers and townspeople.

A group of five residents from Husarivka, an unassuming agricultural village of around 1,000 people, went to tend the cattle.

They were never heard from again.

“My two nephews disappeared. They went to feed the cows on the farm,” said Svitlana Tarusyna, 70. “They are gone, vanished.”

What transpired in Husarivka has all the horrifying elements of the more widely publicized episodes involving Russian brutality: indiscriminate killings, abuse and torture taking place over the better part of a month.
Human rights workers around Kyiv, the capital, are gathering evidence of Russian atrocities, hoping to build the case for war crimes. But for the villagers here, the occupation’s legacy is not measured in mass killings, corpses or ruined buildings, but in the disappearances of friends and neighbors.

Though the residents are free of Russian occupation, questions about what exactly happened during those troubled days will linger for years to come
NY Times
 
Images have emerged which appear to give a first glimpse at Russia flagship Moskva after it was blown up by Ukrainian missiles last week before it sunk to the bottom of the Black Sea.

The pictures, which seem to have been taken from a rescue vessel alongside the stricken Russian warship, show damage its left side along with flames burning below deck and a thick pall of black smoke rising into the sky.

Moskva is shown sitting low in the water, leaning to the port side, and appears to have deployed its lifeboats with no crew visible on board. Its rear helicopter door is also open, suggesting the aircraft has taken off. There also seems to be a firefighting ship behind the vessel which is spraying jets of water into the air.

Multiple black marks scar the port-side of the ship, including several near deck-level where smoke appears to have streamed out of portholes and left marks on the paint. But there are also dark marks close to the waterline that don't match the position of portholes and suggest the ship has sustained external damage.

The images are largely consistent with Ukrainian descriptions of the sinking - that the Moskva was hit by two missiles on its port side which sparked a fire and caused it to roll - and contradict Russia's account which was that the ship suffered a fire and internal explosion in rough seas.

Video has also since emerged which appears to show two rescue vessels approaching the burning ship - one to the left side and one to the right - in which a Russian voice can be heard speaking. One man says 'what the f*** are you doing?' before the short clip ends.

Analysts and experts who reviewed the images say they do appear genuine. It is unlikely that Russia will confirm the authenticity of the pictures, amid a near-total information blackout around the sinking which is a huge embarrassment to Vladimir Putin's beleaguered armed forces.

Moscow did stage what appeared to be a parade of crew members in the port of Sevastopol - in occupied Crimea - on Sunday, during which the captain of the warship and between 150 and 250 members of its crew were shown on camera alongside Black Sea Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov. The Moskva typically carries up to 510 sailors, and there was no word on the whereabouts of the remaining crew or their condition.
But horror accounts of the sinking have started to emerge from conscripts serving on board the ship, with one telling his parents that at least 40 members of the crew were killed with 'many' left missing or maimed with lost limbs after the strike. Hundreds are thought to have died as the vessel went down.

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Click on the link for the Video...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-pictures-Russian-warship-Moskva-sinking.html
 
Furryanimal said:
https://www.rferl.org/a/adam-michnik-russia-ukraine-change-putin-brezhnev-afghan-war/31808312.html
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quote from the article.. ''
Putin also likely brushed off the capabilities of the Ukrainians, Michnik said, admitting he was himself among the initial skeptics.


"[Putin] did not think that there would be such a heroic response from the Ukrainian Army and Ukrainian society," he said. "It's fantastic. No one thought it would happen, and I didn't think it would either. The Ukrainians told me that this would happen, but I did not believe them."

I know it's far from over but I've said this very thing right from the beginning of this conflict... I have always felt that Putin for all his wealth and his huge army, has massively underestimated the fierce and defensive nature of the ordinary Ukrainian people ...they remind me so much of Great Britain during WW2... a small nation who stood up to bullying mightier nations, and sent them running with their tails between their legs, and I hope and believe that despite all the dreadful deaths and destruction, that Ukraine will defeat Putin and show the world they are a force to be reckoned with
 
hollydolly said:
quote from the article.. ''
Putin also likely brushed off the capabilities of the Ukrainians, Michnik said, admitting he was himself among the initial skeptics.


"[Putin] did not think that there would be such a heroic response from the Ukrainian Army and Ukrainian society," he said. "It's fantastic. No one thought it would happen, and I didn't think it would either. The Ukrainians told me that this would happen, but I did not believe them."

I know it's far from over but I've said this very thing right from the beginning of this conflict... I have always felt that Putin for all his wealth and his huge army, has massively underestimated the fierce and defensive nature of the ordinary Ukrainian people ...they remind me so much of Great Britain during WW2... a small nation who stood up to bullying mightier nations, and sent them running with their tails between their legs, and I hope and believe that despite all the dreadful deaths and destruction, that Ukraine will defeat Putin and show the world they are a force to be reckoned with
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My Ukrainian friend and i-we’ve known each other for six years-have always agreed that if Russia invaded there was only one outcome.
And it wasn’t a Ukrainian victory.
But the whole world has been surprised at how well Ukraine has done and how incompetent the Russians have been.
But i fear that if the Russians start being pushed back in Donbas Putin will carry out major aerial bombardments in areas that have largely been left alone.And will seek to destroy the whole of Donbas in the way has destroyed Mariupol.
And the worry from the article is that Michnick said he expects the same outcome as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
That would be good-but not if takes 10 years as that conflict did.
Before coming here i watched the latest Anna from Ukraine blog( of which i have a couple posted).
Interesting to hear the daily thoughts of someone living in Ukraine-even if she is in a ‘safe’ area.
Today Mariupol featured.
 
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The girl in this photo is named Ivanka, she is 10 years old. She is holding a phone in her hands,lost when the Russians who came to occupy her native Trostyanets in Sumy region. But thanks to the warm-hearted, the mobile phone returned to the owners.
The intelligence unit 93 of the Cold Yar brigade conducted an operation eastbound from this city. A mechanic-driver from the Kantemiriv division of the Russian Armed Forces was captured by our guys. When the prisoner was detained, a red mobile phone was found, as well as a powerbank with rhinestones. At first the occupier lied that these were his things. The mobile had a seven-card card of one of the Russian operators. And from this phone there were already calls to Russia. And in the contact list there were also Ukrainian numbers, signed by "daddy" and "mumulâ". Kholodnoyarki started calling these numbers. It turned out that the phone belongs to Ivanka.
Ivanka Elena's mother remembers: "On March 15, we left the whole family in the evacuation corridor from Trostyanets, at the time of the occupation. Standing in a column, on their car "sixes" were frightened because there were fights for the city. While standing in the evacuation column, the military rf approached and said to give all the phones. I replied that we have them all discharged. Before that, we have removed all messengers from our phones so as not to give the enemy any information. When leaving the city, at the blockade Russian military walked with a cardboard box and took phones from everyone who was leaving the city, threatening to shoot. They shouted and bullied us. They said it was like we were filming them.
It's been about three days, guys called my number and asked: is that you mommy? I replied with - yes. Dmytro from the 93rd brigade told that they found a phone in a Russian military prisoner. They asked if we were alive.
I was so excited that I didn't believe it from the start, I thought it was some kind of joke. Ivanka cried a lot because the phone was taken away. And even though my husband told the guys to keep the phone to themselves, they still sent it to us by Nova Poshta."
Now Ivanka is grateful to Kholodnoyarcâm for such a pleasant surprise, and sends congratulations to the 93 brigade
Kyiv Independent
 
Paco Dennis said:
I would too, if the bully would protect me from the boogie man.
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Nations (and individuals) have been doing this for centuries. 40 years ago, the Warsaw Pact saw NATO as the boogie man and now most of those former members see Putin and Russia as the boogie man. In 40 years... who will be the boogie man?
 

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