2021-2 NFL Pro Football (pls, no other sports!)

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Sam Huff, RIP at age 87.


I love the game of football and Sam was my all time hero. Worked in NYC for many years after his great career was over. Off the field he was said to be a true gentleman who treated everyone very well. But on the playing field he could turn into a ferocious beast!
 

Yea. Lions had a moral victory 😊

Mr. Brady threw ball to other team-twice.

Panthers beat Cardinals, beat them bad!

There are Raiders and Chiefs fans on this thread, so where's the chatter?
Both teams need victory.
I'm sort'a, maybe, could be, leaning towards Carr.

After Sunday's games are over:
Mahomes back to normal, I had forgotten Cowboys have to play KC next week-shucks.

Think Titians are best defensive team in I've seen week-in-week ; Super Bowl bound, not sure 🤔
Need to watch them more, but their TV times conflict with Cowboys.
 
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The Boys are back, @jerry old. 🏈🤠💙 I've been watching Dak since he was 19 years old and knew he'd be on fire today and have the team fired up. He didn't have the caliber of players at Mississippi State that he does this year, but other than a rare fluke like last week, his effort and leadership are stellar and have been for many years.
 

This was an interesting highlight in the latest NYTimes NFL results. It was long so I'm posting it separately from my usual edited "lessons learned from week xx" posts.

I think highly of Bill Belichick, whom I feel is one of the few coaches that takes Bill Walsh's football maxims to heart and even improves on them. QB coaching is vastly undervalued by most football mgmt, even as QBs become ever more desired and highly paid.

Walsh, a talented amateur boxer, firmly believed footwork was one of THE most important elements in the difference between a good and a great QB. One of the things I dislike most about current Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is seeing how JGaroppolo has regressed in his throwing techniques with the Niners, due to KS's passive/aggressive management style - KS is very obvious that he doesn't really trust most players, and it's easy to get into his "doghouse" (which he claims he doesn't have, even as it's obvious to everyone) without receiving any helpful guidance other than "he knows what he should be doing".
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excerpted from: NYT Week 10 results, 16Nov2021
Highlighting: Mac Jones, rookie Patriots QB

Last April, no QB prospect was ridiculed more than Alabama’s Mac Jones. His numbers in 2020 were immaculate: He threw 41 TDs to only four picks, went 13-0 and won a national title. Yet there was no singular physical trait that signaled what his NFL impact could be. No highlight-reel athleticism. No transcendent improvisation. No throw-it-over-them-thar-mountains arm. At 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, Jones had a Dad Bod, not Trey Lance’s upside, Justin Field’s toughness or Trevor Lawrence’s golden locks.

Jones dropped into the Patriots’ hands at No. 15 in the 2021 draft, becoming the last QB taken in the first round, seemingly a sign that Coach Bill Belichick had a project to tinker with over time. After Jones led NE’s 45-7 rout of the Cleveland Browns, this much is clear: Mac Jones is ready to toss his training wheels.

Sunday was Jones’s best performance to date and it came against a Browns defense that had physically punished the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, just one week ago. Against Cleveland, Jones completed 19 of 23 passes for 198 yds with three TDs, no interceptions and a near-perfect 142.1 passer rating in a win that muddies an already ultra-clogged AFC

Belichick spent heavily on free agents, his dizzying string of deals making clear that he intended to compete not rebuild. Those signees validated that call in Sunday’s game. Edge rusher Matthew Judon — who inked a four-year, $56 million deal in the spring — had three QB hits Sunday and has 9.5 sacks this season. TE Hunter Henry, who inked a deal worth $37.5 million over three years, caught two TDs. Receiver Kendrick Bourne (three years, $15 million) had 141 total yds.

With starting RB Damien Harris (concussion) out, the rookie Rhamondre Stevenson blasted away for 100 yds on 20 bruising carries.

Since losing heartbreakers to the TBay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys, the Patriots (6-4) have won four games in a row to draw within a half game of the Buffalo Bills (6-3), whom they will face twice in December.

The mystifying struggles of KC star Patrick Mahomes, combined with the Bills’ loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, the Baltimore Ravens’ loss to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday and the Tennessee Titans’ human freight train, Derrick Henry, breaking his foot, have all threatened the expected order of the AFC, leaving a window for Jones to be an unlikely chaos agent.

Jones’s calling card has been his robotic accuracy: He completed 77.4 percent of his passes his final year at Alabama and rarely misses in the pros. The ball placement on his first quarter TD to Henry, a fade, was perfect and pulled the Patriots to a 7-7 tie.

But Jones has also been more willing to drive it downfield, too, pinpointing a 23-yard TD pass to Bourne between two defenders for his second score.

Midway through the third quarter, Jones feathered a throw over Henry’s shoulder on second-and-5 for a 19-yard gain. Four plays later, Stevenson rammed through the line for a TD that put the Patriots up, 31-7.

Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Lance and Fields, the four QBs taken ahead of Jones, may end up having better careers, but as Sunday’s blowout raged on, Jones made the sort of subtle throw not yet seen from the others. On third-and-goal from the Browns’ 3-yard line, Jones looked left to hold Browns safety Ronnie Harrison Jr. then quickly whipped right to hit Henry on a slant for another score.

And there’s another set of circumstances that have created an environment for Jones to thrive: Defenses have had to adjust to the elite QBs who have terrorized them in recent seasons. The leaguewide obsession with eliminating 30-, 40-, and 50-yard plays means practically all teams prop two safeties deep, forcing QBs to build drives across 10 to 15 plays. Mahomes, for one, resembles a completely different player this season, and is on pace to exceed his career-high 12 interceptions (he has 10 so far).

Belichick’s Patriots have no interest in letting Jones heave it deep, perfectly content to run the ball and make defenses load up the box. Only now, Jones is ready to take advantage. The Patriots keep opening up their playbook a little more each week, and Belichick’s teams only improve as the weather turns colder. Jones’s performance Sunday could be a scary warning to the rest of the AFC
 
oldiebutgoody said:
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Sam Huff, RIP at age 87.


I love the game of football and Sam was my all time hero. Worked in NYC for many years after his great career was over. Off the field he was said to be a true gentleman who treated everyone very well. But on the playing field he could turn into a ferocious beast!
Click to expand...
Minimal head protection and yet no obvious brain injury. Great player RIP (if you know how)
 
We appreciate Lethe200 post: insightful posts

Running quarterbacks lose games: so was the NFL's thinking in the 1960-90's.
" If your qb runs, he'll be injured."

Fran Tarkenton was the best example of the futility of a running QB.
Tarkenton would run for 200 yards or more per game, But he ran sideways, not forward
in his attempt to avoid defensive linemen.

Goggle: "Fran is the prime example of someone who did not want to rack up rushing yards himself. Tarkenton mastered the ability to extend plays behind the line of scrimmage and in turn find the open man down field. Tarkenton prospered off his quickness and would constantly bob and heave making plays last way longer than they should have. It was common practice for defenders who attempted to tackle Tarkenton to stay on whatever side of the field they were on because they knew he would eventually find his way back to them. As a matter of fact there is a full highlight reel of long throws he made that were a result of him running side to side for 50 yards in the backfield."

Tarkenton is a 9x pro bowl winner and hall of famer. When he retired, he essentially held every possible Quarterback record. Sadly Fran Tarkenton wasn’t able to win a Super Bowl from his 3 appearances, but his impact as a pioneer to the running Quarterback is not unnoticed.

(See! said the NFL coaches, 'Running QB's cannot win games.")


Alex Karras, all pro Defensive Tackle for the Detroit Lines, who played the Vikings twice a year
could be counted on for colorful comments after chasing Tarkenton *@#!%^&@(*);😉

So, the great minds of the NFL decided 'What we need is a big, tall, stout QB who can fend off
the big Defensive Lineman-Roman Gabriel at 6'5", 225 pounds took the field with the LA Rams.
He was extremely difficult to bring down. when a Def Lineman tried to subdue, but his
Offensive Line 'leaked.' Poor Gabriel had to fight off Def Linemen constantly.
Gabriel gave a good account of himself when the Rams played the Steelers ( Iron Curtain)in their Superbowl, he was Stout, fighting
to remain upright when the Steelers Def Lin attempted to bring him down..

I remember Steve Grogan (Pats), Bobby Douglas (Bears) Randel Cunningham (Eagles) Jim Hart (Cardinals) and John Brodie (SF), They ran due to their Offensive line was porous. Still they were anomalous, the NFL remained firm in their belief
that ' Running QB's lose games."

Slowly, very slowly, the NFL's great minds begin to think there was a place for Running Quarterbacks.
If you had to pick one that altered the NFL's thinking it would have to be Michael Vick's in 2005


Continued
 
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See Lethe200 post 208 on coaches, quarterbacks

A good coach can make a mediocre QB bloom, as well as destroy a good QB
(Coach Noll had Terry Bradshaw ready to pack his bags, there was no understanding between the two.)

Walsh and Belicheck were Asst Coaches under Paul Brown, who was the most initiative coach in the NFL.
Many of his assistance became excellent coaches, others unable or unwilling to use their teacher's strategy
disappeared in the folds of time.
 
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See Lethe200 post 208 on coaches, quarterbacks

A good coach can make a mediocre QB bloom; then bad coaches can destroy a good QB
Walsh and Belicheck were Asst Coaches under Paul Brown, who was the most initiative coach in the NFL.
Many of his assistance became excellent coaches, others unable or unwilling to use their teacher's strategy; the latter
disappeared in the folds of time.
 
What We Learned From NFL Week 10 Pt 1 of 3
Don’t believe in parity? Every team in the NFL has at least two losses, and all but one in the AFC have three.
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation Nov 16, 2021

Washington Football Team 29, Buccaneers 19
The NFC South is now cluttered by three teams with shots at the division title and a wild-card spot. The Buccaneers (6-3) suffered an eyesore of a loss to Washington. Tom Brady threw a pair of first-quarter interceptions to one of the league’s worst pass defenses. The second was a particularly puzzling miss on first-and-10, where it looked as if Brady and receiver Mike Evans expected different routes. Brady averaged a meager 5.5 yds per attempt outside of his one TD to Evans.

TBay is winless so far in November. They need Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski back - its reserve pass-catching options gave Brady almost no chance to push the ball downfield.

The Buccaneers were in this same spot a year ago at 6-3, and then 7-5, before turning on the jets down the stretch. There’s still time for Brady and the TBay bunch to revamp, but the NFC South race could get a surprising shake up from the Carolina Panthers – who will host Washington in Week 11. The Bucs should win vs the Giants, but this year has been full of surprises – so who knows?

Panthers 34, Cardinals 10
Though Carolina (5-5) beat an Arizona team that was without QB Kyler Murray (ankle), receiver DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) and RB Chase Edmonds (ankle), the win injected new life into its season thanks to a familiar face under center.

It will be hard to come up with a better story this season than Cam Newton’s return to Carolina, where he became a superstar and had one of the great seasons in NFL history. His departure was unceremonious, a springtime release in 2020 after a season ruined by injury. Newton isn’t the dominant force of nature he was while winning the 2015 MVP Award, but his return added a wrinkle the Panthers’ offense had been missing.

Newton played sparingly as a complement to starter PJ Walker, throwing four passes and running three times. But the volume of his work belies its impact. On his first play, Newton took a shotgun snap at the 2-yard line, stiff-armed two defenders and barreled over a third at the goal line. As teammates exulted, Newton tore off his helmet and shouted, “I’m back!” On his second snap, from the same spot, Newton faked the same run and zipped a TD pass to Robby Anderson, who called Newton’s return “a dream come true.” Two plays, two TDs.

The Panthers seemed shot after their four-game skid and Sam Darnold’s decline. But their defense, one of the NFL’s best, makes it a season worth saving. RB Christian McCaffrey had 161 total yds against Arizona after missing five games with a hamstring injury. Sunday’s victory bumped them to 5-5 and into the seventh seed in the NFC. It will be fascinating to watch how far Newton can take them.

The Panthers’ win puts them 1 ½ games behind the division-leading Buccaneers, with the New Orleans Saints (5-4) between the two teams. Carolina hosts Washington Week 11.

Arizona’s already banged-up team suffered another blow when back-up QB Colt McCoy was lost with a chest sprain in the second half. An injury update after the game confirmed if Kyler Murray is still out, McCoy should be able to play Week 11 vs Seattle. AZ has their bye week during Week 12, and it couldn’t come at a better time for them.

Patriots 45, Browns 7.
The Patriots are a playoff contender again. NE is the sixth seed in the AFC, just a half-game behind the Bills in the East. Its plus-98 point differential is tied for second in the NFL, behind only Buffalo’s plus-145. In the early years of the Patriots dynasty, before Tom Brady developed into the best QB in NFL history, Belichick built Super Bowl teams on strong defense and physical running, peppering in the passing of a smart, accurate QB. In Mac Jones’s rookie season, Belichick is re-creating the formula.

Rookie RB Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 100 yds and two TDs against Cleveland. In the last six games the Patriots averaged 145.2 yds on the ground. Rookie QB Mac Jones is getting better as the season progresses, and his selection at #15 looks like a steal. On Sunday he completed 19 of 23 passes for 198 yds and three TDs. Linebacker Matthew Judon, a free agent addition and one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, knocked the Browns’ Baker Mayfield out of the game with a hit to his midsection.

It took the Patriots two months to jell after their offseason talent infusion. Everyone has received a reminder that it’s never a good idea to count out Belichick. Buffalo’s rout of the Jets enabled them to stay just ahead of NE in the AFC East.

Kicking off Week 11, the Pats visit the Falcons. The Browns should take care of the Lions on Sunday – we think.
 
What We Learned From NFL Week 10 Pt 2 of 3
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation Nov 16, 2021

Chief 41, Raiders 14.
The Chiefs looked like the Chiefs again. No team has been more picked and prodded this season, deservedly so, than the Chiefs. Their explosive offense had bogged down, and Mahomes no longer seemed pyrotechnic against defenses that refused to blitz. The Chiefs were 5-4 after scraping past GBay last week while scoring 13 points.

Responding to facing the defensive changes thrown at him, Mahomes finally found patience. He took what the LVegas defense gave him. When that meant throwing the ball underneath, Mahomes did it. The Chiefs had methodical TD drives of 11, 10 and 13 plays. When chances for big plays presented themselves, Mahomes capitalized. He threw a spectacular 38-yard TD pass to Williams after a successful fake punt.

Mahomes torched the LVegas Raiders for 406 yds and five TDs to move KC into first place in the AFC West. He had no interceptions while completing 35 of 50 passes. It helped that on Sunday his receivers caught the balls he threw instead of dropping them. Sometimes it’s just that simple.

Week 11 brings a big game of Dallas vs KC on Sunday. Raiders will host the pesky Bengals.

Packers 17, Seahawks 0
Neither Russell Wilson (finger surgery) nor Aaron Rodgers (coronavirus test) looked their former selves back on the field. Wilson mustered a mere four yds per attempt and threw two interceptions. Rodgers wasn’t much better, but Packers RB AJ Dillon had 128 total yds and both of GBay’s TDs, filling in after standout RB Aaron Jones suffered a knee injury.

The Packers’ defense started slow under new coordinator Joe Barry. But in its last five games, GBay has allowed 14, 10, 21, 13 and zero points. The Packers have been to the NFC championship game two straight seasons. If their defense keeps this up - no guarantee after a potentially serious elbow injury to linebacker Rashan Gary - they could break through and make it to the Super Bowl for the second time in Rodgers’s career.

Packers visit the Vikes Week 11, while Seattle plays divisional rival Arizona.

Vikings 27, Chargers 20
Props to embattled Vikings (4-5) Coach Mike Zimmer for going for it on fourth-and-goal from the Chargers’ 1-yard line for the go-ahead score. Kirk Cousins found TE Tyler Conklin to put Minnesota up 20-17 in the third quarter. The Chargers (5-4) have lost three of their last four.

Kirk Cousins threw the ball well, completing 25 of 37 passes for 294 yds, two TDs and a 109.5 rating. Chargers QB Justin Herbert, coming off a stellar win over the Philadelphia Eagles, was relatively ineffective Sunday. He completed 20 of 34 passes for just 195 yds, one TD, one interception and a 72.5 rating.

Vikings host the Pack Week 11, while Steelers visit LAC.

Eagles 30, Broncos 13
In September, it seemed as if Eagles Coach Nick Sirianni abhorred running plays. Not anymore. The Eagles blistered Denver for 214 rushing yds as Jordan Howard, Boston Scott and Jalen Hurts all did damage.

Denver’s Teddy Bridgewater had a bad Sunday. Bridgewater completed 22 of 36 passes for 226 yds, and that does not begin to explain his worst moment. When Eagles CB Darius Slay Jr. scooped up a fumble, Bridgewater appeared to have a clear shot at tackling him on the way to a pick-6 but decided.....not to. Bridgewater explained that he was thinking this: “Maybe I can force the ball back inside and one of our guys can make the tackle.” Sorry, Teddy, but that’s not going to play well in the film room this week.

Saints visit the Eagles, while Broncos have a bye in Week 11.

Cowboys 43, Falcons 3
Thumped a week ago in a loss in which they were outplayed in every phase of the game, the Cowboys regained their footing with an emphatic 43-3 victory over the Falcons. They hope it will be a warm-up for their Week 11 visit to KC, who isn’t looking like such a pushover after stomping on the Raiders this week.

After a poor performance in a loss to the Broncos, Dak Prescott completed 24 of 31 passes for 296 and two TDs, with a 127.9 passer rating. He also ran for a TD. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 42 and 41 yds, respectively, with Elliott scoring twice. CeeDee Lamb caught nine passes for 94 yds and two TDs as Dallas improved to 7-2. The Falcons fell to 4-5. QB Matt Ryan completed only 9 of 21 pass attempts.

It’s a short week for the Falcons to recover, as they meet the Patriots Thursday nite in Atlanta for Week 11.

Colts 23, Jaguars 17
It seemed very unlikely this game would turn into a nail-biter. Jacksonville was coming off a stunning win over the Buffalo Bills but was still 2-6, widely regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL; while the Colts arguably were better than their record indicated.

However, the Jaguars submitted a second straight feisty effort. This time, though, they fell just short in a 23-17 loss.

With Titans Derrick Henry sidelined, Colts Jonathan Taylor has emerged as the best RB in football this season. Taylor finished the game with 116 yds and one TD. Taylor had 116 rushing yards, averaged 5.5 yards per carry, and had a rushing touchdown as well. With another 100-yard game under the star backs’ belt, Taylor becomes just the 4th running back in NFL history to have seven straight games with at least 100 total yards from scrimmage.

The Colts (5-5) are still thinking playoffs – but Week 11 they must travel to Buffalo, while Week 12 will bring the Bucs to town.

Bills 45, Jets 17
The Mike White hype officially died. Another QB who supplied Jets fans with a couple weeks of cheap thrills, it turns out, isn’t very good against a top defense. White was abysmal (four interceptions) while Josh Allen was not, throwing for 366 yds and two TDs on 21 of 28 passing. The win enabled the Bills to stay a half-game ahead of the Patriots, who are suddenly breathing down their necks.

Week 11 brings the Colts to Buffalo; while Miami visits the Jets, who will put Joe Flacco in at QB instead of Mike White.
 
What We Learned From NFL Week 10 Pt 3 of 3
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation Nov 16, 2021

Steelers 16, Lions 16 (OT)
Ben Roethlisberger was a late scratch after testing positive for Covid-19, and Pittsburgh was also without receiver Chase Claypool (toe). Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth fumbled in OT with Pittsburgh at the edge of FG range, so the Lions did not lose at Heinz Field, meaning they will not be the first team to go 0-17. It was a messy game, so full of boneheaded plays that the TV announcers, as reported by SB Nation, started asking aloud if either team actually wanted to win the game. Ouch!

Week 11 the Steelers visit the LA Chargers. Lions visit the Browns.

Titans 23, Saints 21
The Saints struggled with injuries - most recently to Alvin Kamara, a top playmaker - in a loss to Tennessee. At the end of the first half, an end zone interception by Saints safety Marcus Williams was wiped off the board when linebacker Kaden Elliss received an inexplicable roughing the passer penalty. Tennessee ground out a win, holding off a Q4 rally from the Saints, who played without five offensive starters. The Saints failed on a would-be tying two-point conversion with just more than a minute remaining.

The Titans’ pass rush is a force. The four sacks on the Saints gave them 10 in the past three weeks. What makes the Titans’ rush interesting and so devastating, is not how many, but how. The Titans have kept winning without Derrick Henry largely because of the amount of pressure they have generated from up the middle. Tackle Jeffery Simmons and end Denico Autry rank in the top six in hurries, per Pro Football Focus.

Week 11 brings the Texans to Tennessee, while the Saints travel to Philly.

Thoughts from WashPost re Titans-Saints game:
The NFL needs to make roughing-the-passer penalties reviewable. In a worthy effort to keep QBs healthy, the NFL’s rule book instructs officials to err on the side of throwing a flag on any prohibited hit on a QB. It places the officials in a difficult position, encouraging them to make calls on close plays that may not violate the rule. It can swing games in an artificial and unfair way, as it did in the Saints’ loss at Tennessee. Linebacker Kaden Elliss’s hand barely nicked Ryan Tannehill’s helmet, if it made contact at all, and the resulting roughing-the-passer penalty negated an interception just before halftime and led to a Titans TD.

The call shouldn’t be challengeable. But as the league has started to reverse obviously missed calls without the challenge flag, it should ensure the most egregious mistakes on roughing-the-passer are overturned. It’s possible to protect the QB without affecting the game in unfair ways.

Monday Night Football
Niners 31, Rams 10
The go-for-broke LA Rams went broke Monday night in Santa Clara, CA. The game couldn’t have started any better for the usually slow-starting 49ers. On the first drive, SF’s Jimmie Ward intercepted Matthew Stafford down the field after a miscommunication with Odell Beckham Jr.

The Niners took the turnover and with a relentless, patient 18-play drive, went 93 yds for the final 8 yd TD pass to TE George Kittle. The 49ers took 11 minutes off the clock in one of their longest sustained drives this season.

Jimmie Ward then did it again – with less than a minute to go in Q1, he caught the ball caroming out of Rams’ TE Tyler Higbee’s hands and ran it in for a quick pick-6. Just like that, the Niners were up 14-zip and the Rams were reeling. In Q2 SF ate the clock again, going 91 yds in 11 plays for another TD. At the half it was 21-7.

The Rams defense struggled with one of Niners HC Shanahan’s (sadly rare) creative playcalling games. It helped that Jeff Wilson came off IR; he doesn’t carry the ball often but he and Kittle helped clear the lanes for big gains by Brandon Aiyuk, Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel.

Samuel put on a show for the MNF fans. In Q3 he caught a Garoppolo pass to get the first down on a 3-and-long, shimmied out of what looked like a certain stop by two Rams defenders, only to keep his feet, spin around, and leave them sprawled in a heap as he danced for another four yds before being tackled by four Rams. In 2021 Samuel has a whopping 10+ Yds After Catch, far outstripping AJ Green who is in second place with 4.7 YAC.

The LA Rams need Beckham Jr. more than they wanted to. Some of the most unfortunate news of the season arrived soon after the signing. WR Robert Woods shredded a knee ligament at practice Friday, robbing the Rams of a pivotal weapon. Woods is one of the toughest wideouts in the league and an excellent blocker who frequently carried the ball on jet sweeps. His versatility will be missed.

Against the most explosive offense in the NFL, Niners D generated four turnovers, and left the Rams at 1-3 in the red zone and 3-11 on third/fourth down. Shanahan and McVay have an informal rivalry going on – the Rams and Niners are traditional enemies, and both young coaches were hired around the same time and are in their first HC job. McVay has lost the last 5 games to Shanahan and is now 3-6 overall with his fiercest divisional rival. The two men are friends, btw – just not at game time!

For Week 11, SF travels to meet and hopefully beat the Jaguars. LAR has their bye week.
 
So much happening, it's hard to keep up! (Especially if you also watch pro basketball, as I do - games three and sometimes four times a week, LOL). Sorry for the late post above, I drafted it but never actually clicked on "post reply".

NFL Week 11 Predictions Pt 1 of 3
Mac Jones will try to push the Patriots to top of the AFC East, Cam Newton and the Panthers can muck up the NFC South, and Patrick Mahomes will try to prove KC’s troubles are over.
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation, 11/20/2021

All times are Eastern. Byes: Broncos, Rams

The Panthers, who added QB Cam Newton and got RB Christian McCaffery back from injury, could pounce on the NFC South while the Buccaneers and Saints play games without key starters. The 49ers, after a statement win Monday night, have a soft stretch in their schedule. With a win likely over the Jaguars this week, SF could make up some ground on securing a wild-card spot out of the NFC West while the Rams are on a bye.

As the intrigue in the NFC heightens, the AFC’s tightest races could get new leaders. The Patriots have a shot at closing the half-game gap with the Bills in the East, and the Steelers (5-3-1) have inched to within a fraction of the Ravens (6-3) in the North - a space it will try to close in a matchup against the Chargers.

Thursday’s Matchup
NE Patriots 25, Atlanta Falcons 0.
The Falcons are the first team since the 2009 Texans to have 3 players throw an interception in the same game (Matt Schaub, Rex Grossman, Chris Brown). They are the first team since the 2000 Chargers to have 3 QBs throw an interception in a single game (Ryan Leaf, Jim Harbaugh, Moses Moreno). It’s crushing that even in garbage time this team could not avoid turning the ball over.

The late scratch of Cordarelle Patterson was a huge blow to a Falcons offense that rotates around him and rookie TE Kyle Pitts. Atlanta has now thrown seven interceptions in their past two games, and were shut out at home for the first time since 1988. Their D actually played well. On Thursday night, Atlanta only provided that toughness on one side of the ball. Hounded by pressure behind an OL that apparently forgot its purpose, Matt Ryan chucked two picks, Josh Rosen threw a pick six, and even Felipe Franks got in on the fun with an interception. The ground game could do nothing of consequence, receivers missed passes or couldn’t make a play, and Ryan was less and less sharp as he absorbed hits and the team fell behind.

NE (7-4) has now won five consecutive games and is jostling with the Bills for the AFC East lead. Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones became the first qualifying rookie QB in league annals (i.e. one attempting a minimum of 15 passes per game) to complete at least 80% of his throws in back-to-back contests.

Jones went 22-for-26 against Atlanta for a completion rate of 84.6%. He also gained 207 yds and threw one TD and interception each.

Sunday’s Games

Dallas Cowboys at KC, 4:25p, Fox
Pick: KC
Yes, KC (6-4) looked good defensively on Sunday but it played the Raiders, whose offense is foundering after the team released its best receiver. Now KC will try to stop the Cowboys (7-2), who feature arguably the best receiving corps in the league and average 294.3 passing yds per game.

Dallas’s defense has been vulnerable to volume passers like Patrick Mahomes - who has the second-most interceptions in the league, but is coming off a five-TD, zero-interception performance in which he had 50 attempts. But Dak Prescott can keep pace, although Amari Cooper was just placed on the COVID list. Dallas is good enough against the run to prevent KC from controlling time of possession.

GBay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, 1p, Fox
Pick: Packers
Given another week to recover from the coronavirus, Aaron Rodgers should return to form as the Packers (8-2) face the Vikings (4-5). But he’ll be without RB Aaron Jones, who is dealing with a sprained knee.

All but one of Minnesota’s games this season have been decided by one score, and if the spread was a little larger, it would be tempting to bet on them to cover. But after the Packers’ sloppy performance against Seattle, Rodgers will be eager to remind the league that GBay can score a lot. And the Packers D can be tough, too.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25p, Fox
Pick: Cardinals
Injuries are the only reason for the tight spread between the NFC West’s best and worst teams. The Cardinals (8-2) have played their last two games without QB Kyler Murray (ankle sprain), who remains on day-to-day status. WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is also scratched, while Murray’s backup, Colt McCoy, is questionable (pectoral). It is hard to totally knock AZ given that they have played their last two games down some serious offensive firepower. They are legit, but they need to get healthy.

The Seahawks (3-6), meanwhile, just experienced the worst offensive outing in Russell Wilson’s career, and are uncertain of the status of starting RB Chris Carson (neck). Assuming Murray and Hopkins play, this one shouldn’t be close. The D actually played well against the Packers, but the offense was, well, offensive. Wilson probably should have rested the additional week, although the Seahawks’ offense didn’t look so hot even when he was physically whole. HC Pete Carroll’s timidity on 4th downs is starting to creep into Seattle’s 3rd down situations, which is not good.
 
NFL Week 11 Predictions Pt 2 of 3
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation, 11/20/2021
All times are Eastern. Byes: Broncos, Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers at LA Chargers, 8:20p, NBC
Pick: Chargers
The Chargers (5-4) have lost three of their last four games and have issues defending against the run, but the Steelers (5-3-1) could be without their three best players. Coach Mike Tomlin said he is unsure whether QB Ben Roethlisberger or safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will clear Covid-19 protocols, though Tomlin was more optimistic about Roethlisberger. TJ Watt, who is second in the league in sacks (12.5), is also questionable with hip and rib injuries.

Chargers defensive linemen Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery were also placed on the Covid-19 list Tuesday and may be unable to play. If Bosa tests negative on Saturday, however, he will be cleared to play. Even with the Chargers’ inconsistency, LA should cover the spread because of Pittsburgh’s short-handedness. The Steelers’ potential absences are more consequential.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1p, CBS
Pick: Bills
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor leads the league in all-purpose yds (1,240) and has tied the Titans’ Derrick Henry for first in rushing yds (937).

A win - no matter how ugly or close - is a win. The Colts (5-5) narrowly beating the lowly Jaguars last week kept their playoff hopes realistic in the wide-open AFC. The Bills (6-3) should bring them back to reality. Buffalo’s top-ranked defense can frustrate Carson Wentz in ways the Jets and Jaguars couldn’t during the Colts’ two-game winning streak, while QB Josh Allen relishes carving up the Colts’ secondary, ranked seventh in passing yds allowed (2,499).

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears, 1p, CBS
Pick: Ravens
Lamar Jackson is indeed human, and the Ravens’ (6-3) loss to Miami (Miami! Really?) in Week 10 showed that Baltimore needs production from other players to have a real shot at a title. RB Latavius Murray looks likely to play after missing three games with an ankle injury. Wondering who will step up to help Jackson will be a relevant concern in the playoffs, but maybe not this week against the Bears (3-6).

Chicago’s defense is tied for fourth in sacks (25), but it has generated only nine takeaways. The rookie QB Justin Fields’s development has progressed after each game, but it is hard to imagine the Ravens will perform poorly in back-to-back games.

Washington Footballers at Carolina Panthers, 1p, Fox
Pick: Panthers
Coach Matt Rhule would not officially name Cam Newton the starter but this week’s first-team reps have gone to Carolina’s prodigal son, all but ensuring that Newton will see much more than the nine snaps he played in his first game back in a Panthers uniform. The practice should help re-establish his connection with receiver DJ Moore and the now-healthy Christian McCaffrey, breathing new life into the Panthers’ (5-5) playoff hopes.

Against a Washington (3-6) team led by the former Panthers coach Ron Rivera, Newton - and backup P.J. Walker - will face less of a pass rush with DE Chase Young out after an ACL tear. If Newton takes care of the ball, his first game back at Bank of America Stadium should be filled with Superman celebrations.

Washington announced Young is done for the season, just days after confirming that his defensive teammate Montez Sweat would be out several weeks after suffering a broken jaw on Oct. 31 at Denver. That will greatly reduce the effectiveness of a pass rush that was already struggling to put pressure on opposing QBs.

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns, 1p, Fox
Pick: Browns
Baker Mayfield has had an up-and-down campaign for a contract extension and is trending downward. The Browns (5-5) are last in the AFC North, and he completed only 52% of his passes for 73 yds last week in a blowout loss against the Patriots that Mayfield left in the second half because of a knee injury.

Mayfield’s status is day-to-day as he nurses that injury and an ailing shoulder, but Coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Mayfield to play against the Lions (0-8-1), who recently played the season’s first tie. Detroit took Pittsburgh to OT last week and looked gassed trying to finally get a win. If Mayfield is even somewhat effective, and if RB Nick Chubb clears Covid-19 protocols, Cleveland should cover at home.

Lions QB Jared Goff has been sacked 26 times this season, tied for the league lead. Goff is reported as doubtful with an oblique injury. He didn’t practice at all this week, so back-up Tim Boyle may be starting. If Detroit manages to pull it together and get their first win, it would make this five meetings in a row that Detroit tops the Browns – but that’s a big “if”.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1p, CBS
Pick: Titans
The Titans (8-2) have won both their games without their star RB Derrick Henry, but they’re still without Julio Jones (hamstring), who must miss at least two more games while on injured reserve. Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and the Titans’ cast of replacement backs should face little resistance from the Texans (1-8), who are rested from a bye week but whose defense has given up the second-most rushing yds (1,232) in the league.
 
NFL Week 11 Predictions Pt 3 of 3
NYT, WashPost, local media, SB Nation, 11/20/2021
All times are Eastern. Byes: Broncos, Rams

Miami Dolphins at Jets, 1p, CBS
Pick: Dolphins
The Dolphins (3-7) returned their 2020 methodology of aggressively blitzing to beat Lamar Jackson last week, and it can definitely give Joe Flacco problems. Mike White threw four interceptions against the Bills, clearing up any QB controversy for the Jets (2-7). With Zach Wilson still recovering from a knee injury, Coach Robert Saleh elected to start Flacco, a 14-season veteran, over White. The hope is that Flacco can handle the blitz-heavy Miami D better than Mike White, who had a tough time last week.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 1p, Fox
Pick: Eagles
The Eagles are a lot better than their 4-6 record suggests. Philadelphia has the fifth-best offense of 2021, per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. Its defense boasts some of the best tacklers in the NFL this year (a league-leading 690 tackles), and its pass rush is also among the best in the league, per Pro Football Focus.

After ignoring the run earlier in the season, the Eagles (4-6) have rushed for over 130 yds in each of their last four games, including two performances over 200 yds. That strategy may not work against the Saints (5-4), whose defense has given up more than 100 rushing yds only once. The Saints have been unbearably hard to predict, but their #1-rated defense should force the Eagles to lean on Jalen Hurts’ rushing as much as passing.

Offsetting the tough Eagles D will be a tough task for QB Trevor Siemian, who is without the services of star RB Alvin Kamara (knee), as well as starting tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczy. The Saints have a growing IR list, and are struggling. This game is rated as a toss-up, but most experts are picking Philly.

SF 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1p, Fox
Pick: 49ers
Jacksonville (2-7) has played better in recent weeks, but a matchup with the 49ers (4-5) could test the Jaguars’ biggest strength: its rushing defense, which allows a mere 106 yds per game. The 49ers’ offense is predicated on misdirection, a challenge for a defense that’s still finding itself.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has seesawed through his rookie season so far and is tied for third in interceptions with nine. His mistakes could give SF’s offense extra possessions, which can only help a Niners offense that finally has most of its offensive weapons back. RB sensation Elijah Mitchell is recovering from finger surgery, but veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. will be in the backfield on early downs, while fullback Kyle Juszczyk will be the passing-down back. TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel are active, the latter putting on a spectacular show on Monday Night Football as the Niners routed their rival, the LA Rams.

Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo played one of his best games in recent years on the MNF win. One criticism of Shanahan’s offense is that too often the pace slows down and his playcalling becomes mundane. Garoppolo hesitates and makes too many mistakes in those situations. When the pace is fast – against the Rams he was the 2nd fastest QB in pass release for the week – Jimmy G shines.

This should be an easy match-up for the Niners, but it all depends on where HC Shanahan’s head is at, this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at LVegas Raiders, 4:05p, CBS
Pick: Bengals
What a difference a month makes. After Jon Gruden resigned as coach in October, the Raiders’ (5-4) efforts to remain poised and efficient have faltered in November amid more personnel shake-ups - including the release of 2020 first-round draft picks Henry Ruggs III and Damon Arnette. LVegas has lost its last two games, and looked sloppy and disorganized in doing so. KC last week exploited deficiencies in the Raiders’ passing defense and pointed out miscommunications in coverages, beating them with 422 passing yds.

Raiders QB Derek Carr and the offense struggled to score 20 points for the second week in a row. The Raiders are 5-0 when scoring more than 25 and 0-4 when scoring less than 20 points. Carr’s performance was good when he had time in the pocket. There were serious high-level throws he made with anticipation and accuracy, which has separated this season from previous showings. However, according to sports radar, the pressure was too much to overcome, with Carr facing pressure on 50% of the Raiders’ third downs. It all led to the desperation heave that sent the Raiders reeling after the back-breaking interception.

That should excite the Bengals (5-4), who hope to reawaken their passing attack. Joe Burrow threw two interceptions against the Cleveland Browns before Cincinnati’s bye, so the Bengals will be fresh and motivated to deepen the Raiders’ rut. Keep an eye on the tussle in the trenches between Raiders OT Kolton Miller vs Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson. Miller has done a stellar job protecting Carr, while Hendrickson is rated almost as good at sacks and pressures as the Rams’ Aaron Donald.

A little less than a month ago, the Bengals were sitting at 5-2 and the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. After a couple of tough losses to the Jets and Browns in back-to-back weeks, Cincinnati has fallen out of the postseason standings. With their own 2-game losing streak, LVegas is tied with them for the eighth spot in the conference. This game is critical for both teams.

Monday’s Matchup
Giants at TBay Buccaneers, 8:15p, ESPN
Pick: Buccaneers
Giants RB Saquon Barkley looks to return for the first time since Week 5. If he can play, it could be under ideal circumstances since Buccaneers tackle Vita Vea, arguably TBay’s most impactful defensive player, was carted off at the end of last Sunday’s game with a knee injury.

Rob Gronkowski (back) and Antonio Brown (ankle) are also uncertain to play for the Bucs (6-3) with injuries that have hampered TBay for much of the season. Though they are the better team, the Buccaneers’ soft secondary and key absences give the Giants a chance to keep this one close.
 
The NFL get wilder every week as Week 11 continued to upend assumptions. Short week for the holiday so recaps are very quick:

Biggest shockers:
Buffalo Bills fall to 6-4 and may not even make a Wild Card berth upon an embarrassing loss to the Indianapolis Colts, 15-41

Dallas Cowboys were shocked by the revitalized Kansas City Chiefs, who found their D by shifting Chris Jones back to his old position, 9-19

GBay Packers were stunned by the feisty Minnesota Vikings, 31-34

Tennessee Titans, first-place in AFC South, lost to last-place Houston Texans (of all teams!), 13-22

And the other games:
Arizona Cardinals stepped over the fading Seattle Seahawks, even without Kyler Murray, 23-13

Baltimore Ravens edged the Chicago Bears (even without Lamar Jackson),16-13

Cincinnati Bengals smashed the Las Vegas Raiders, with the Raiders now out of any wild card consideration, 32-13

Cleveland Browns snuck past the undermanned Detroit Lions, 13-10

LA Chargers edged past the Pittsburgh Steelers despite Roethlisberger leading a 27-pt Q4 comeback, only to lose to a 53-yd TD pass by Charger Justin Herbert with less than two minutes remaining, 41-37

Miami Dolphins pushed away the NY Jets, 24-17

Philadelphia Eagles overcame the New Orleans Saints, as Eagle Jalen Hurts becomes their first QB in franchise history to rush for three TDs in a game, 40-29

SF Niners smashed the unfortunate Jacksonville Jaguars, who alternated between committing flagrant costly fouls and losing key players to injury, 30-10

Washington Football Team discouraged the Carolina Panthers despite Cam Newton's fireworks (2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD), 27-21

NY Giants and TBay Buccaneers play Monday Night
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Thanksgiving games, starting Week 12 (all times Eastern):
  1. Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m.
  2. LVegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys 4:30 p.m.
  3. Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints 8:20 p.m.

 
Cleveland is not as good as I thought they were, felt they would definitely take division title.
Looks like Steelers will will that division, maybe Bengals or Ravens, Bengals-does anybody want it.
Are Cardinals better much better or very much better than LA Ram?
Looks like Can Newton will be his old self next year? I never figured out they why of his demise.
Bills and Saints game might be interesting on Thanksgiving.
🤡
(What? no mention of Cowboys?)
Cowboy's spokesperson says 🤡
 

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