I seem to have missed posting Week 6, so apologies! Onwards to Week 7:
Week 7 Predictions Pt 1 of 2
NYT, WashPost, SB Nation, local media Oct. 21, 2021 (All times Eastern)
Byes: Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers, Chargers.
The total of 10 OT games so far in the 2021 NFL season is tied for second most in a single season through six weeks. But the league’s competitiveness has been enjoyable, proving the old quotation about how any team can win or lose “on any given Sunday.”
Thursday Night Football – Browns 17, Broncos 14
The Cleveland Browns moved to 4-3. Filling in for the injured QB Baker Mayfield, back-up Case Keenum got the Browns' offense going early. He led a five-play, 75-yard opening drive that resulted in a TD, and Cleveland would hold that lead throughout the game en route to victory. The Broncos struggled in the first half with just 76 yds of total offense, unable to convert any of their four third-down opportunities through Q1 and Q2.
The Broncos came alive in the second half, but Browns RB D'Ernest Johnson, an undrafted free agent signed by Cleveland in 2019, filled in superbly for injured Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Johnson finished his day with 146 yds on the ground and a TD while catching both of his targets for 22 yds. A fun side note: three years ago, Johnson was working on a fishing boat. Today, after his first NFL start he’s a Browns’ hero.
Keenum completed 21 of 33 for 199 yds and a TD. Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater was 23 of 33 passing for 187 yds, two TDs, and an interception.
Calls for Denver coach Vic Fangio to be fired are a growing chorus, and there is widespread dissatisfaction with GM Patton – and even with the iconic John Elway (
https://www.denverpost.com/2021/10/18/george-paton-john-elway-2-0-denver-broncos-QB-woes-nfl-2021/).
Sunday’s Best Games
KC at Tennessee Titans, 1p, CBS
Pick: KC
Chiefs continue with inexplicably poor defensive performances and coverage breakdowns. The team ranks 28th in rushing defense, a nightmare for KC (3-3) as it faces the Titans (4-2) and superstar RB Derrick Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher. The offense is not helping the defending AFC champion. KC leads the NFL in turnovers (14), and Patrick Mahomes’s eight interceptions are tied for second with Jaguars rookie Trevor Lawrence.
This could be a letdown game for Tennessee after beating Buffalo last week. The Bills, Chargers and Ravens have shown how to contain KC. The Titans’ defense could do the same, or at least keep the game competitive enough to allow Henry and the offense to gain an upset.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, 1p, CBS
Pick: Ravens
The Ravens (5-1) have demonstrated they can win in several ways. Lamar Jackson can throw for over 400 yds or the team can amass 200 rushing yds. Four of the team’s six games have been decided by one score. The matchup with the Bengals (4-2) could be just as close.
Who knew the Bengals are allowing the fifth-fewest points in the NFL? Cincinnati’s defense also ranks ninth in rushing yds allowed (543), meaning Baltimore may have to rely more heavily on Jackson’s arm. Joe Burrow and the rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who ranks fourth in the league in receiving yds (553), are capable of making it a shootout. Expect the Bengals to keep the game close.
Indianapolis Colts at SF 49ers, 8:20p, NBC
Pick: 49ers
SF (2-3) could join Seattle on the brink of irrelevancy in the NFC West with another loss, while both Rams and Cardinals have winnable easier games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) is likely to start as rookie Trey Lance recovers from a knee injury. The QB controversy is in full swing in the Niners fan boards. The injury bug continues to dog the Niners, with their most potent offensive weapons – TE George Kittle and RB Raheem Mostert – out. Their pass rush remains fearsome, but the secondary is suspect with two of their best defenders on IR.
The Colts (2-4) got a shot of confidence from bullying the Texans after their Q4 collapse to the Ravens. They hope to continue that momentum. Carson Wentz has thrown only one interception this season, and OG Quenton Nelson, the team’s best lineman, is practicing this week after a three-game absence. If he plays against Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ defense, it may allow Wentz and the Colts to start a win streak against a team struggling to find its identity again.
(Edited to mention: our first big rainstorm in 2 yrs threatens to make this game a messy, muddy slog! Expect a low-scoring match.)
Sunday’s Other Games
Washington Football Team at GBay Packers, 1p, Fox
Pick: Packers
No matter what mood Rodgers is in this week, the Packers (5-1) should easily beat the Footballers (2-4). Washington played competitively against KC, thanks to forcing three turnovers, but soon unraveled. Rodgers has completed nearly 67% of his passes and thrown only three interceptions. Pair that responsible play with Antonio Gibson, Washington’s leading rusher, being compromised by a shin injury, and it’s clear why GBay is a big betting favorite.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins, 1p, Fox
Pick: Falcons
Losing to the previously winless Jaguars in London is an embarrassment to the Dolphins’ front office and coaching staffs. Completing a similar performance against the Falcons (2-3) in two consecutive weeks could be unforgivable. Tua Tagovailoa showed promising glimpses in his return from a rib injury, but the defense that kept the Dolphins (1-5) in playoff contention last year, struggled against Jags rookie Trevor Lawrence and allowed over 300 passing yds for the third time.
That’s a trend that may continue against the pass-first Falcons, who welcome receiver Calvin Ridley back after he dealt with a personal issue before the bye. These teams, whether they admit it or not, are in rebuilding mode. But the Falcons are a safer bet after a week off while Miami recovers from its London trip.